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Football
Point Spreads - Spotting Bargains!
Can 3½ points be a better line than 9½ points?
You bet!
Football scoring is a "numbers game" … points are added to the score in units of 2, 3, 6, 7 or 8. With this in mind, its important to realize that CERTAIN POINT SPREADS posted by the bookmaker ARE MORE IMPORTANT than others. Because a relatively high percentage of games end with a margin of victory in increments of these numbers, it's imperative that attention be paid to the most meaningful point spreads.
Well over half of all pro football games end with one of ten possible differences in the score: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 13, 14, or 17 (not necessarily in that order!)
So, the "Half-Point" move off any of these numbers can represent a significant betting opportunity.
Watch
the Line Move from Three!
For example, a line of +3.5 is a BARGAIN
compared to that same underdog at +3 … this indicates that the favored team
must now score a touchdown as opposed to a field goal in order to win the game.
So, in essence, a line move to +3.5 can be considered much more significant
that, say, a line move from +5 to +5.5.
And, by the same logic, a point spread that moves from +3 to +2.5 indicates a RISKY BET on the underdog. These half-point line changes from a point spread of 3 can be much more significant than larger changes.
For instance, a line change from +7.5 to +9.5 is hardly worth noticing. Because football games do not usually end with a margin of 8 or 9, the move from +7.5 to +9.5 doesn't make much difference. When a team covers, or fails to cover, 7.5 points, they almost always cover, or fail to cover, 9.5 as well.
Check out the live lines here and see if you can spot a bargain!
The
13 REAL Numbers!
To
gamble on football, it's important to realize that certain scores are more likely
to occur than other scores. Would you believe that only 13 different numbers
represent more than 66% of all NFL football scores!
It's true!
When predicting final football scores, you must take into account these REAL
NUMBERS …
7, 10, 13, 14, 16, 17, 20, 21, 23, 24, 27, 28, and 31
These numbers (plus scores in the category of "Over 40") are the only real numbers worth considering when forecasting the final outcome. Always adjust your predictions accordingly.
In other words, say you've forecast the Titans over the Rams by a score of 30-26 … this score probably won't happen! Adjust your numbers to a score with a higher probability of occurring … say, 31-24 or 28-27. Now you are dealing with a point spread worthy of consideration.
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